Will the marriage rate be affected?
So what impact will it have on society? One of the intuitive effects may be a drop in the marriage rate.
From the annual data, from 2005 to 2013, the marriage rate continued to rise, rising from 6.3 to 9.92. However, since then, the marriage rate has entered a downward channel. In 2017, the national marriage rate was only 7.6‰.
In the first quarter of 2018, the national marriage logarithm was 3.017 million pairs, this figure and 3.198 million pairs in the first quarter of 2017, 3.45 million pairs in the first quarter of 2016, 3.6 million pairs in the first quarter of 2015, and the first quarter of 2014. Compared with the 4.282 million pairs in the first quarter of 2013, there were a steady decline.
At the same time that the marriage rate has dropped, the age of first marriage has increased rapidly. Prior to 2012, citizens aged 20-24 who registered for marriage accounted for the largest proportion of the total marriage population. Since 2012, the number of citizens aged 25-29 who have registered for marriage has been increasing year by year. Since 2013, citizens aged 25-29 who have registered for marriage account for the largest proportion of the total marriage population.
Jiang Quanbao pointed out that with the development of social economy and the change of population concept, the marriage rate has decreased, the rate of non-marriage has increased, and the birth rate has decreased. This is a normal law in developed countries, including Japan and South Korea around China.
He suggested avoiding the rapid decline in the marriage rate. In addition to measures such as extending maternity leave and granting certain maternity allowances, it is also necessary to reduce housing costs and provide more quality educational resources. "Measures should be taken on the issue of high housing prices. High housing prices are a very unfavorable factor that hinders people from getting married and giving birth."
At the same time, the education statistics bulletin shows that the proportion of female students in ordinary colleges and universities across the country continues to rise, 37% in 1997 and 50.8% in 2010, basically growing at a rate of 1 percentage per year. In 2016, the proportion of ordinary undergraduate female students reached 52.53%.
Ma Xiaohong, director of the Beijing Municipality Research Center of the Party School of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China, pointed out that at present, the proportion of males after 00 is greater than that of females, but many boys have been eliminated in the senior high school entrance examination and college entrance examination. “But despite the higher proportion of women in universities, because of discrimination in the job market, women continue to improve their professional competitiveness through high education, thus delaying the marriage age. The rate of unmarried girls is increasing, and the time of pregnancy and childbirth after marriage is growing. The combination of several factors makes the reproductive time of women of childbearing age very limited."
“The experience of fertility in some countries in foreign countries is worth learning, such as Singapore’s marriage tax cuts and priority application for HDB (similar to China’s affordable housing),” she said.